Las Cruces, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

362
FXUS64 KEPZ 080447
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1047 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1021 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

 - Lower grade monsoon conditions expected for the next several
   days, though northerly flow aloft will favor thunderstorms
   working into the lowlands in the evenings, especially in
   southwestern New Mexico.

 - Some lowland storms could bring gusty winds and blowing dust as
   low level moisture becomes limited.

 - High temperatures will run about 5 to 10 degrees above normal
   through the end of the week.

 - Uptick in thunderstorm coverage possible Friday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1021 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

The subtropical ridge remains parked over the middle of the AZ/NM
state line this evening. A cluster of strong thunderstorms is
riding down the eastern edge of the ridge, with gusty
thunderstorms over SE New Mexico. Most convection in our area has
diminished, with widespread lighter showers present over the
Bootheel, while a more significant MCS is located over NE Sonora
(though fairly weak by Sierra Madre standards).

The ridge will stay more or less stationary through tomorrow, with
northerly flow bringing in slightly drier air in the mid-levels,
but also some cooler air aloft will sneak in from the north
during the afternoon and evening. HREF members, particularly the
HRRR, still bring us a fairly active afternoon and evening, even
as PWAT values become a little worked over and drop below 1.10
inches at ELP, and around 0.80 inches in northern Sierra County
late in the afternoon. NNE to SSW steering flow favors
Southwestern New Mexico for the best lowland thunderstorm chances
in the evening. As dewpoints drop into the upper-40s to lower-50s,
and temperatures climb in the upper-90s, the threat of gusty
downburst winds increases. We`ll need to keep an eye on Lordsburg
Playa late in the afternoon/early evening as convection pushes
south into the lowlands.

Northeasterly flow aloft on Wednesday will continue the drying
trend, and bring thunderstorm chances down a tick, especially in
the lowlands. By Thursday, the ridge looks to become low amplitude
(squashed) as it drifts west towards northern Baja, with a and E-W
ridge axis remaining over southern Arizona into southern New
Mexico. A weak shortwave trough will try and graze by the eastern
edge of the ridge, but mid-level temperatures look quite warm, (-4
to -5C), likely inhibiting convection.

An inverted trough passing well to our south Friday evening looks
to ignite the Sierra Madres, helping to boost low level moisture
across our area heading into Saturday. By then the subtropical
ridge looks to have recentered itself well to our west, over
coastal southern California, with north to northeasterly flow
aloft over New Mexico. But, it doesn`t look to bring in
particularly drier air aloft. Instead, a passing northern stream
shortwave trough looks to deliver some cooler air aloft, with 500
mb temperatures dropping to around -7 to -8C Saturday afternoon.
This looks to bring an uptick in convection across the area.

Things look very unclear after Saturday, as troughing may try to
develop to the east of the subtropical ridge, and northerly flow
aloft continues. This will bring weak disturbances in from the
north, but eventually should start to introduce some drier air
over time. But, a series of inverted troughs deep inside Mexico
look to keep the northern Sierra Madres active, and possibly a
source of low level moisture intrusions. So while we`re not
looking at a terribly moist period (PWATS 1.00-1.20 inches), we
may be relatively active regardless.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1021 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Showers in SW New Mexico will slowly diminish, and winds will
become light and variable across the area tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move from the NNE to SSW
out of the higher terrain on Tuesday, with PROB30s warranted at
ELP, LRU, and DMN. Gusty downburst winds will be possible in the
lowlands as surface dewpoint depressions increase.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1157 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

There will be a gradual warming trend over the week with high
temperatures reaching 100-105 over most of the lowlands by Thu.
There will be some modest moisture still around but expect Min
RH`s in the mid to upper teens in the lowlands with 20s and 30s in
the mountains. There will be a scattered storms daily in the
mountains with some moving onto the lowlands with the best chance
being through Tuesday. Winds will generally be under 15 mph but
with good mixing heights, vent rates will be very good through
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  76 100  78 102 /  20  40  50   0
Sierra Blanca            68  91  67  93 /  10  20  20   0
Las Cruces               71  98  72  99 /  40  40  50   0
Alamogordo               71  97  70  98 /  20  50  40  10
Cloudcroft               53  73  53  74 /  30  60  50  30
Truth or Consequences    72  99  73  99 /  30  20  20  10
Silver City              66  93  67  94 /  40  40  30  50
Deming                   71 101  72 102 /  50  40  50  10
Lordsburg                71 100  73 101 /  50  40  40  20
West El Paso Metro       77  97  77  99 /  30  40  50   0
Dell City                71  95  71  97 /  20  40  40   0
Fort Hancock             74  99  75 100 /  20  20  20   0
Loma Linda               68  90  69  92 /  10  40  40  10
Fabens                   74  99  75 100 /  10  30  40   0
Santa Teresa             74  97  75  98 /  40  40  50   0
White Sands HQ           76  98  76  99 /  30  50  40  10
Jornada Range            71  97  71  99 /  30  40  30  10
Hatch                    71 101  72 102 /  40  40  30  10
Columbus                 74 100  75 101 /  50  40  50   0
Orogrande                71  95  71  96 /  20  40  40  10
Mayhill                  58  83  57  84 /  40  50  40  30
Mescalero                58  85  58  86 /  30  60  50  30
Timberon                 56  81  56  81 /  20  60  50  20
Winston                  61  91  61  92 /  30  30  30  30
Hillsboro                68  98  69  99 /  40  40  30  20
Spaceport                69  98  69  99 /  30  30  20  10
Lake Roberts             61  95  62  95 /  40  40  30  50
Hurley                   66  95  68  97 /  50  40  30  30
Cliff                    68 101  69 102 /  40  40  30  40
Mule Creek               66  97  66  99 /  30  30  30  30
Faywood                  68  95  69  95 /  50  50  40  30
Animas                   71 100  72 102 /  50  40  50  20
Hachita                  69  98  71  99 /  50  40  50  10
Antelope Wells           69  97  72  99 /  60  40  50  20
Cloverdale               66  94  71  95 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...25-Hardiman