Las Cruces, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

397
FXUS64 KEPZ 071713
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1113 AM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1100 AM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025

-  Dry and hot weather pattern into the weekend, with triple
   digit lowland high temperatures. Heat Advisories remain in
   effect for El Paso and lower Rio Grande valley through
   Saturday.

-  Scattered showers and thunderstorms returning next week,
   focused mainly over area mountains and western New Mexico.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Upper high remains fixed over New Mexico today. The complete
cutoff of monsoonal flow and local precipitable water values
around 0.7" will result in dry conditions area wide and only a
stray weak shower or two over the high terrain this afternoon.
Temperatures in the desert lowland will climb above the triple-
digit mark again, reaching 102-105 degrees along the I-10
corridor.

No major changes in the weather pattern through Saturday. Upper
high weakens slightly, but remains fixed over New Mexico the rest
of the week. Lack of available moisture will result in only
isolated showers and thunderstorms over the mountain zones,
remaining dry for most lowland locations. Triple-digit lowland
highs continue. Heat Advisory is in effect for El Paso and the
lower RGV through Saturday evening.

Mid-latitude trough will fully erode the upper high by early next
week, resulting in more normal moisture values (PW 1.1-1.3") and
better thunderstorm coverage starting on Sunday. No major day-to-
day changes, warm conditions and a daily thunderstorm cadence.
Scattered (40-60%) thunderstorms over area mountains and isolated
(20-40%) across the desert lowlands will be most common, with
localized flooding and gusty outflow winds being the primary
hazards. Forecast QPF favors mountains and western NM next week,
with lesser chances for the Rio Grande and far west Texas areas.
Temperatures cool a bit but remain slightly above normal next
week, with lowland highs in the upper 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025

VMC expected through forecast period. Skies SKC-FEW130 this
afternoon, with minimal CB coverage over mountains. Surface winds
out of the southeast 110-140 at 5 to 10 knots. FEW-SCT140
overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Elevated fire danger through the rest of the week due to recent
dryness and above normal temperatures. Very low storm coverage
next couple days, limited to the high terrain and minimal flood
risk. Min RH 15-25%, with light west winds resulting in Good
ventilation.

Thunderstorm chances increasing again early next week as the
upper high erodes and allows for the return of better moisture.
Coverage will be scattered (40-60%) over LNF/GNF and area
mountains, with localized flooding possible. Gusty outflow winds
near storms may impact fire planning. ERCs remain slightly above
normal for August.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 104  76 104  76 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            97  65  98  67 /   0   0  10   0
Las Cruces              100  69 100  71 /   0   0   0  10
Alamogordo              100  71  99  72 /  10   0  10  10
Cloudcroft               78  54  78  56 /  20   0  30  10
Truth or Consequences   100  71 100  73 /   0  10  10  10
Silver City              95  67  94  66 /  10  10  20  20
Deming                  104  69 104  71 /   0   0   0  10
Lordsburg               102  68 100  69 /   0   0  10  20
West El Paso Metro      101  75 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               101  67 102  69 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            102  72 102  74 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               95  69  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  101  70 101  71 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            100  71  99  71 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ          101  74 102  75 /   0   0   0  10
Jornada Range           100  69  99  71 /   0   0  10  10
Hatch                   102  69 102  71 /   0   0  10  10
Columbus                102  71 102  73 /   0   0   0  10
Orogrande                99  69  98  70 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  89  60  89  61 /  20   0  20  10
Mescalero                90  59  89  61 /  30   0  30  10
Timberon                 87  58  86  59 /  20   0  20  10
Winston                  93  59  93  63 /  20  10  20  20
Hillsboro               100  67  99  69 /  10  10  10  20
Spaceport               100  67  99  70 /   0   0  10  10
Lake Roberts             95  61  95  61 /  20  10  20  20
Hurley                   97  66  97  67 /   0   0  10  10
Cliff                   102  67 102  68 /  10  10  10  10
Mule Creek               99  66  97  66 /  10  10  10  10
Faywood                  96  67  96  69 /   0   0  10  10
Animas                  103  67 100  70 /   0   0  10  20
Hachita                 101  67  99  69 /   0   0  10  10
Antelope Wells          100  67  99  68 /   0   0  10  20
Cloverdale               97  64  94  65 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Saturday for Eastern/Central El
     Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western
     Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth
     County-Western El Paso County.

NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt